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Match predictions
Three statistical models — each trained on 20 years of international football — forecast every match, 10,000 simulated tournaments at a time. Pick a model to see its view of the cup. As real results come in, every model is scored on the forecasts it made before kickoff, so you can watch which one is actually winning the World Cup of forecasting.
Forecasts last updated 2026-06-10. Probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per model.
1Choose your model
Elo + DC + attack/defense: Builds on Dixon-Coles but gives every team two extra dials: an attack rating (does it score more or less than its overall strength implies?) and a defense rating (does it concede more or less?). Morocco, for example, defends far better than its ranking suggests. Best backtest scores of the three — this is the default model.
2How the models are scoring this tournament
Models are graded on the forecast they published before kickoff. Picks correct: did the outcome the model rated most likely actually happen? Brier score: how close its probabilities were to reality — lower is better, and guessing blindly scores 0.667.
Elo + Poisson
—
no matches played yet
Elo + Dixon-Coles
—
no matches played yet
Elo + DC + attack/defense
—
no matches played yet
3Who wins the cup? — Elo + DC + attack/defense
Spain
19%
Argentina
18%
England
9.0%
Brazil
8.0%
France
6.1%
Colombia
5.5%
Morocco
4.6%
Portugal
4.5%
Ecuador
2.6%
Germany
2.5%
Belgium
2.5%
Netherlands
2.5%
Japan
2.0%
Norway
2.0%
4Match-by-match forecasts
first team winsdrawsecond team wins
2026-06-11
Mexico – South Africa
pick: Mexico (67%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-11
South Korea – Czech Republic
pick: South Korea (39%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-12
Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina
pick: Canada (66%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-12
United States – Paraguay
pick: United States (38%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-13
Qatar – Switzerland
pick: Switzerland (79%) · 0-2
upcoming
2026-06-13
Brazil – Morocco
pick: Brazil (38%) · 0-0
upcoming
2026-06-13
Haiti – Scotland
pick: Scotland (62%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-13
Australia – Turkey
pick: Turkey (39%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-14
Sweden – Tunisia
pick: Sweden (38%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-14
Netherlands – Japan
pick: Netherlands (38%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-14
Germany – Curaçao
pick: Germany (87%) · 3-0
upcoming
2026-06-14
Ivory Coast – Ecuador
pick: Ecuador (46%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-15
Belgium – Egypt
pick: Belgium (49%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-15
Iran – New Zealand
pick: Iran (60%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-15
Spain – Cape Verde
pick: Spain (86%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-15
Saudi Arabia – Uruguay
pick: Uruguay (62%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-16
Austria – Jordan
pick: Austria (60%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-16
Argentina – Algeria
pick: Argentina (64%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-16
France – Senegal
pick: France (49%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-16
Iraq – Norway
pick: Norway (67%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-17
Portugal – DR Congo
pick: Portugal (63%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-17
Uzbekistan – Colombia
pick: Colombia (63%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-17
England – Croatia
pick: England (52%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-17
Ghana – Panama
pick: Panama (43%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-18
Czech Republic – South Africa
pick: Czech Republic (47%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-18
Mexico – South Korea
pick: Mexico (52%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-18
Switzerland – Bosnia and Herzegovina
pick: Switzerland (65%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-18
Canada – Qatar
pick: Canada (80%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-19
Turkey – Paraguay
pick: Turkey (40%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-19
Scotland – Morocco
pick: Morocco (55%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-19
Brazil – Haiti
pick: Brazil (88%) · 3-0
upcoming
2026-06-19
United States – Australia
pick: United States (38%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-20
Netherlands – Sweden
pick: Netherlands (60%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-20
Tunisia – Japan
pick: Japan (57%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-20
Germany – Ivory Coast
pick: Germany (52%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-20
Ecuador – Curaçao
pick: Ecuador (79%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-21
Belgium – Iran
pick: Belgium (46%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-21
New Zealand – Egypt
pick: Egypt (53%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-21
Spain – Saudi Arabia
pick: Spain (85%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-21
Uruguay – Cape Verde
pick: Uruguay (65%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-22
France – Iraq
pick: France (72%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-22
Norway – Senegal
pick: Norway (42%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-22
Argentina – Austria
pick: Argentina (61%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-22
Jordan – Algeria
pick: Algeria (59%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-23
Portugal – Uzbekistan
pick: Portugal (63%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-23
Colombia – DR Congo
pick: Colombia (63%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-23
England – Ghana
pick: England (78%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-23
Panama – Croatia
pick: Croatia (58%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-24
Morocco – Haiti
pick: Morocco (78%) · 2-0
upcoming
2026-06-24
Bosnia and Herzegovina – Qatar
pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina (49%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-24
Scotland – Brazil
pick: Brazil (65%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-24
South Africa – South Korea
pick: South Korea (50%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-24
Mexico – Czech Republic
pick: Mexico (59%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-24
Canada – Switzerland
pick: Switzerland (37%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-25
United States – Turkey
pick: Turkey (39%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-25
Paraguay – Australia
pick: Australia (35%) · 0-0
upcoming
2026-06-25
Curaçao – Ivory Coast
pick: Ivory Coast (68%) · 0-2
upcoming
2026-06-25
Ecuador – Germany
pick: Germany (36%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-25
Japan – Sweden
pick: Japan (57%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-25
Tunisia – Netherlands
pick: Netherlands (60%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-26
Senegal – Iraq
pick: Senegal (57%) · 1-0
upcoming
2026-06-26
Norway – France
pick: France (44%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-26
Uruguay – Spain
pick: Spain (57%) · 0-1
upcoming
2026-06-26
New Zealand – Belgium
pick: Belgium (73%) · 0-2
upcoming
2026-06-26
Egypt – Iran
pick: Iran (38%) · 0-0
upcoming
2026-06-26
Cape Verde – Saudi Arabia
pick: Saudi Arabia (36%) · 0-0
upcoming
2026-06-27
Panama – England
pick: England (74%) · 0-2
upcoming
2026-06-27
Algeria – Austria
pick: Austria (37%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-27
Jordan – Argentina
pick: Argentina (83%) · 0-2
upcoming
2026-06-27
Colombia – Portugal
pick: Colombia (37%) · 1-1
upcoming
2026-06-27
DR Congo – Uzbekistan
pick: Draw (35%) · 0-0
upcoming
2026-06-27
Croatia – Ghana
pick: Croatia (66%) · 1-0
upcoming
5How far does each team go?
| team | grp | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | H | 99% | 72% | 52% | 41% | 30% | 19% |
| Argentina | J | 98% | 69% | 54% | 40% | 27% | 18% |
| England | L | 98% | 68% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 9.0% |
| Brazil | C | 97% | 66% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 8.0% |
| France | I | 92% | 63% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 6.1% |
| Colombia | K | 92% | 61% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5.5% |
| Morocco | C | 93% | 57% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4.6% |
| Portugal | K | 91% | 60% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 4.5% |
| Ecuador | E | 93% | 55% | 27% | 14% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Germany | E | 95% | 56% | 28% | 14% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Netherlands | F | 89% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| Belgium | G | 92% | 61% | 34% | 13% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Japan | F | 86% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Norway | I | 84% | 48% | 25% | 12% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Switzerland | B | 95% | 59% | 26% | 11% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Uruguay | H | 89% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Croatia | L | 87% | 42% | 18% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Mexico | A | 93% | 53% | 22% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Turkey | D | 74% | 42% | 18% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Senegal | I | 73% | 36% | 16% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Austria | J | 75% | 28% | 13% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Canada | B | 95% | 49% | 18% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Australia | D | 67% | 34% | 13% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Iran | G | 79% | 42% | 16% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Algeria | J | 71% | 25% | 11% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Paraguay | D | 64% | 31% | 11% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Ivory Coast | E | 77% | 31% | 11% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Egypt | G | 72% | 32% | 11% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| United States | D | 71% | 32% | 11% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| South Korea | A | 73% | 34% | 11% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Czech Republic | A | 65% | 27% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Scotland | C | 65% | 23% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Uzbekistan | K | 42% | 13% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sweden | F | 51% | 13% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Cape Verde | H | 28% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| DR Congo | K | 39% | 12% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| South Africa | A | 38% | 11% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Qatar | B | 21% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 51% | 15% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tunisia | F | 43% | 10% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Panama | L | 47% | 11% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Haiti | C | 13% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Curaçao | E | 10% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Zealand | G | 27% | 6.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | H | 34% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iraq | I | 22% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan | J | 23% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ghana | L | 29% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
6Why trust any of this? (backtest evidence)
Before the tournament, every model predicted thousands of past matches it had never seen, trained only on data available at the time. Accuracy: share of matches where the most likely outcome happened (random guessing = 33%, always picking the home side = 47%). Brier: probability quality, lower is better. XGBoost is a machine-learning benchmark for comparison. Best score per column in green.
WC 2018 (64 matches)
| model | accuracy | brier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo + Poisson | 58% | 0.588 |
| Elo + Dixon-Coles | 58% | 0.591 |
| Elo + DC + attack/defense | 59% | 0.568 |
| XGBoost (benchmark) | 53% | 0.602 |
WC 2022 (64 matches)
| model | accuracy | brier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo + Poisson | 52% | 0.622 |
| Elo + Dixon-Coles | 52% | 0.622 |
| Elo + DC + attack/defense | 48% | 0.622 |
| XGBoost (benchmark) | 50% | 0.645 |
All matches 2024 - now (2540 matches)
| model | accuracy | brier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo + Poisson | 60% | 0.511 |
| Elo + Dixon-Coles | 60% | 0.511 |
| Elo + DC + attack/defense | 60% | 0.501 |
| XGBoost (benchmark) | 60% | 0.513 |
7Most likely bracket — Elo + DC + attack/defense
This is the single most likely storyline: every match resolved to its most probable outcome, one path through the whole tournament. It answers a different question from the title odds above, which count wins across all 10,000 simulated tournaments and every possible path — so the two can crown different teams without either being wrong.
ELI5: how can the bracket winner differ from the title-odds leader?
Imagine two equally good teams walking different roads to the final. Team A's road is one wide, smooth highway: its single most likely path is very clear, and in the final at the end of that path it has a tiny 52/48 edge. Ask “what's the ONE most likely story of the tournament?” and you follow each step to its most probable ending — that story ends with Team A lifting the trophy. That's the walkthrough below.
Team B's road is lots of smaller paths that all lead to the final: a softer group, a kinder side of the bracket. No single path is the likeliest story, but added up across thousands of simulated tournaments, Team B reaches the final — and wins the whole thing — slightly more often. That's the title odds above.
Same idea in one line: you're more likely to bump into somefriend today than to bump into Bob specifically — even if Bob is the single friend you're most likely to see. “Most total ways to happen” and “biggest single way to happen” aren't the same thing.
When to use which: use the title oddsto judge who's most likely to win the cup (betting, bragging rights, expectations). Use the walkthrough to fill out a bracket or preview the most plausible match-by-match route. If they disagree, it means the top teams are nearly even — which is itself useful to know.
Show the single most-likely tournament walkthrough
GROUP STAGE — most likely tables Group A: 1.Czech Republic (5pts), 2.South Korea (5pts), 3.Mexico (5pts), 4.South Africa (0pts) Group B: 1.Canada (7pts), 2.Switzerland (7pts), 3.Bosnia and Herzegovina (1pts), 4.Qatar (1pts) Group C: 1.Brazil (7pts), 2.Morocco (7pts), 3.Scotland (3pts), 4.Haiti (0pts) Group D: 1.Turkey (3pts), 2.United States (3pts), 3.Paraguay (3pts), 4.Australia (3pts) Group E: 1.Ecuador (7pts), 2.Germany (5pts), 3.Ivory Coast (4pts), 4.Curaçao (0pts) Group F: 1.Japan (7pts), 2.Netherlands (5pts), 3.Sweden (2pts), 4.Tunisia (1pts) Group G: 1.Belgium (7pts), 2.Iran (5pts), 3.Egypt (4pts), 4.New Zealand (0pts) Group H: 1.Spain (9pts), 2.Uruguay (6pts), 3.Cape Verde (1pts), 4.Saudi Arabia (1pts) Group I: 1.France (7pts), 2.Norway (5pts), 3.Senegal (4pts), 4.Iraq (0pts) Group J: 1.Argentina (9pts), 2.Algeria (4pts), 3.Austria (4pts), 4.Jordan (0pts) Group K: 1.Colombia (7pts), 2.Portugal (7pts), 3.DR Congo (1pts), 4.Uzbekistan (1pts) Group L: 1.England (9pts), 2.Croatia (6pts), 3.Panama (1pts), 4.Ghana (1pts) Best third-placed teams from groups: ACDEFGIJ ROUND OF 32 M73: South Korea vs Switzerland -> Switzerland (win prob 66%) M74: Ecuador vs Paraguay -> Ecuador (win prob 66%) M75: Japan vs Morocco -> Morocco (win prob 58%) M76: Brazil vs Netherlands -> Brazil (win prob 64%) M77: France vs Sweden -> France (win prob 83%) M78: Germany vs Norway -> Germany (win prob 51%) M79: Czech Republic vs Scotland -> Scotland (win prob 53%) M80: England vs Senegal -> England (win prob 74%) M81: Turkey vs Austria -> Turkey (win prob 51%) M82: Belgium vs Mexico -> Belgium (win prob 59%) M83: Portugal vs Croatia -> Portugal (win prob 65%) M84: Spain vs Algeria -> Spain (win prob 84%) M85: Canada vs Egypt -> Canada (win prob 56%) M86: Argentina vs Uruguay -> Argentina (win prob 76%) M87: Colombia vs Ivory Coast -> Colombia (win prob 77%) M88: United States vs Iran -> Iran (win prob 57%) ROUND OF 16 M89: Ecuador vs France -> France (win prob 60%) M90: Switzerland vs Morocco -> Morocco (win prob 63%) M91: Brazil vs Germany -> Brazil (win prob 66%) M92: Scotland vs England -> England (win prob 83%) M93: Portugal vs Spain -> Spain (win prob 68%) M94: Turkey vs Belgium -> Belgium (win prob 59%) M95: Argentina vs Iran -> Argentina (win prob 85%) M96: Canada vs Colombia -> Colombia (win prob 75%) QUARTERFINALS M97: France vs Morocco -> France (win prob 53%) M98: Spain vs Belgium -> Spain (win prob 77%) M99: Brazil vs England -> England (win prob 52%) M100: Argentina vs Colombia -> Argentina (win prob 66%) SEMIFINALS M101: France vs Spain -> Spain (win prob 65%) M102: England vs Argentina -> Argentina (win prob 61%) FINAL M104: Spain vs Argentina -> Argentina (win prob 52%) PREDICTED CHAMPION: Argentina HOW TO READ THIS: the walkthrough above is the single most likely storyline, taking the most probable outcome of every individual match. It is a different question from the overall title odds (Spain 18.5%, Argentina 17.9%, England 9.0%), which count wins across all 10,000 simulated tournaments and every possible path. When the two best teams are nearly even, one can lead the title odds while the other wins this particular walkthrough — a near-50/50 final flips it.