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Match predictions
Three statistical models — each trained on 20 years of international football — forecast every match, 10,000 simulated tournaments at a time. Pick a model to see its view of the cup. As real results come in, every model is scored on the forecasts it made before kickoff, so you can watch which one is actually winning the World Cup of forecasting.
Forecasts last updated 2026-08-09. Probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per model.
1Choose your model
Elo + DC + attack/defense: Builds on Dixon-Coles but gives every team two extra dials: an attack rating (does it score more or less than its overall strength implies?) and a defense rating (does it concede more or less?). Morocco, for example, defends far better than its ranking suggests. Best backtest scores of the three — this is the default model.
2How the models are scoring this tournament
Models are graded on the forecast they published before kickoff. Picks correct: did the outcome the model rated most likely actually happen? Brier score: how close its probabilities were to reality — lower is better, and guessing blindly scores 0.667.
Elo + Poisson
69/103
picks correct (67%) · Brier 0.501
Elo + Dixon-Coles
69/103
picks correct (67%) · Brier 0.503
Elo + DC + attack/defense
71/103
picks correct (69%) · Brier 0.485
3Who wins the cup? — Elo + DC + attack/defense
Spain
28%
Argentina
22%
England
11%
France
6.5%
Colombia
5.4%
Brazil
4.8%
Morocco
4.2%
Portugal
3.6%
Belgium
3.2%
Netherlands
2.4%
Germany
1.7%
Norway
1.4%
Switzerland
1.1%
Japan
0.7%
4Match-by-match forecasts
first team winsdrawsecond team wins
2026-06-11
Mexico – South Africa
pick: Mexico (67%) · likely 1-0
2-0 ✓
2026-06-11
South Korea – Czech Republic
pick: South Korea (39%) · likely 1-1
2-1 ✓
2026-06-12
Canada – Bosnia and Herzegovina
pick: Canada (65%) · likely 1-0
1-1 ✗
2026-06-12
United States – Paraguay
pick: United States (39%) · likely 1-1
4-1 ✓
2026-06-13
Qatar – Switzerland
pick: Switzerland (79%) · likely 0-2
1-1 ✗
2026-06-13
Brazil – Morocco
pick: Brazil (37%) · likely 0-0
1-1 ✗
2026-06-13
Haiti – Scotland
pick: Scotland (61%) · likely 0-2
0-1 ✓
2026-06-13
Australia – Turkey
pick: Turkey (39%) · likely 1-1
2-0 ✗
2026-06-14
Germany – Curaçao
pick: Germany (86%) · likely 3-0
7-1 ✓
2026-06-14
Ivory Coast – Ecuador
pick: Ecuador (45%) · likely 0-1
1-0 ✗
2026-06-14
Netherlands – Japan
pick: Netherlands (37%) · likely 1-1
2-2 ✗
2026-06-14
Sweden – Tunisia
pick: Sweden (39%) · likely 1-1
5-1 ✓
2026-06-15
Saudi Arabia – Uruguay
pick: Uruguay (61%) · likely 0-1
1-1 ✗
2026-06-15
Spain – Cape Verde
pick: Spain (87%) · likely 2-0
0-0 ✗
2026-06-15
Belgium – Egypt
pick: Belgium (50%) · likely 1-0
1-1 ✗
2026-06-15
Iran – New Zealand
pick: Iran (60%) · likely 1-0
2-2 ✗
2026-06-16
France – Senegal
pick: France (49%) · likely 1-0
3-1 ✓
2026-06-16
Iraq – Norway
pick: Norway (66%) · likely 0-1
1-4 ✓
2026-06-16
Argentina – Algeria
pick: Argentina (63%) · likely 1-0
3-0 ✓
2026-06-16
Austria – Jordan
pick: Austria (59%) · likely 1-0
3-1 ✓
2026-06-17
Portugal – DR Congo
pick: Portugal (63%) · likely 1-0
1-1 ✗
2026-06-17
Uzbekistan – Colombia
pick: Colombia (62%) · likely 0-1
1-3 ✓
2026-06-17
England – Croatia
pick: England (52%) · likely 1-0
4-2 ✓
2026-06-17
Ghana – Panama
pick: Panama (43%) · likely 1-1
1-0 ✗
2026-06-18
Canada – Qatar
pick: Canada (76%) · likely 2-0
6-0 ✓
2026-06-18
Switzerland – Bosnia and Herzegovina
pick: Switzerland (62%) · likely 1-0
4-1 ✓
2026-06-18
Czech Republic – South Africa
pick: Czech Republic (45%) · likely 1-0
1-1 ✗
2026-06-18
Mexico – South Korea
pick: Mexico (53%) · likely 1-1
1-0 ✓
2026-06-19
Scotland – Morocco
pick: Morocco (53%) · likely 0-1
0-1 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-19
Brazil – Haiti
pick: Brazil (88%) · likely 3-0
3-0 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-19
United States – Australia
pick: United States (37%) · likely 1-1
2-0 ✓
2026-06-19
Turkey – Paraguay
pick: Turkey (40%) · likely 1-1
0-1 ✗
2026-06-20
Germany – Ivory Coast
pick: Germany (50%) · likely 1-1
2-1 ✓
2026-06-20
Ecuador – Curaçao
pick: Ecuador (80%) · likely 2-0
0-0 ✗
2026-06-20
Netherlands – Sweden
pick: Netherlands (55%) · likely 1-1
5-1 ✓
2026-06-20
Tunisia – Japan
pick: Japan (62%) · likely 0-1
0-4 ✓
2026-06-21
Spain – Saudi Arabia
pick: Spain (82%) · likely 2-0
4-0 ✓
2026-06-21
Uruguay – Cape Verde
pick: Uruguay (60%) · likely 1-0
2-2 ✗
2026-06-21
New Zealand – Egypt
pick: Egypt (52%) · likely 0-1
1-3 ✓
2026-06-21
Belgium – Iran
pick: Belgium (48%) · likely 1-1
0-0 ✗
2026-06-22
France – Iraq
pick: France (77%) · likely 2-0
3-0 ✓
2026-06-22
Norway – Senegal
pick: Norway (47%) · likely 1-1
3-2 ✓
2026-06-22
Argentina – Austria
pick: Argentina (60%) · likely 1-0
2-0 ✓
2026-06-22
Jordan – Algeria
pick: Algeria (62%) · likely 0-1
1-2 ✓
2026-06-23
Portugal – Uzbekistan
pick: Portugal (63%) · likely 1-0
5-0 ✓
2026-06-23
Colombia – DR Congo
pick: Colombia (63%) · likely 1-0
1-0 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-23
England – Ghana
pick: England (79%) · likely 2-0
0-0 ✗
2026-06-23
Panama – Croatia
pick: Croatia (60%) · likely 0-1
0-1 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-24
Morocco – Haiti
pick: Morocco (80%) · likely 2-0
4-2 ✓
2026-06-24
Scotland – Brazil
pick: Brazil (65%) · likely 0-2
0-3 ✓
2026-06-24
Bosnia and Herzegovina – Qatar
pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina (50%) · likely 1-0
3-1 ✓
2026-06-24
Canada – Switzerland
pick: Canada (36%) · likely 1-1
1-2 ✗
2026-06-24
South Africa – South Korea
pick: South Korea (48%) · likely 0-1
1-0 ✗
2026-06-24
Mexico – Czech Republic
pick: Mexico (62%) · likely 1-0
3-0 ✓
2026-06-25
United States – Turkey
pick: United States (48%) · likely 1-1
2-3 ✗
2026-06-25
Paraguay – Australia
pick: Australia (37%) · likely 0-0
0-0 ✗ 🎯
2026-06-25
Curaçao – Ivory Coast
pick: Ivory Coast (71%) · likely 0-2
0-2 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-25
Ecuador – Germany
pick: Germany (42%) · likely 1-1
2-1 ✗
2026-06-25
Japan – Sweden
pick: Japan (57%) · likely 1-1
1-1 ✗ 🎯
2026-06-25
Tunisia – Netherlands
pick: Netherlands (70%) · likely 0-2
1-3 ✓
2026-06-26
Senegal – Iraq
pick: Senegal (57%) · likely 1-0
5-0 ✓
2026-06-26
Uruguay – Spain
pick: Spain (59%) · likely 0-1
0-1 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-26
Norway – France
pick: France (46%) · likely 1-1
1-4 ✓
2026-06-26
New Zealand – Belgium
pick: Belgium (75%) · likely 0-2
1-5 ✓
2026-06-26
Egypt – Iran
pick: Iran (34%) · likely 0-0
1-1 ✗
2026-06-26
Cape Verde – Saudi Arabia
pick: Cape Verde (35%) · likely 0-0
0-0 ✗ 🎯
2026-06-27
Algeria – Austria
pick: Austria (37%) · likely 1-1
3-3 ✗
2026-06-27
Jordan – Argentina
pick: Argentina (87%) · likely 0-2
1-3 ✓
2026-06-27
Colombia – Portugal
pick: Colombia (37%) · likely 1-1
0-0 ✗
2026-06-27
DR Congo – Uzbekistan
pick: DR Congo (38%) · likely 0-0
3-1 ✓
2026-06-27
Panama – England
pick: England (77%) · likely 0-2
0-2 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-27
Croatia – Ghana
pick: Croatia (59%) · likely 1-0
2-1 ✓
2026-06-28
South Africa – Canada
pick: Canada (47%) · likely 0-1
0-1 ✓ 🎯
2026-06-29
Brazil – Japan
pick: Brazil (49%) · likely 1-1
2-1 ✓
2026-06-29
Germany – Paraguay
pick: Germany (51%) · likely 1-1
4-5 ✗
2026-06-29
Netherlands – Morocco
pick: Morocco (38%) · likely 1-1
3-4 ✓
2026-06-30
Mexico – Ecuador
pick: Mexico (39%) · likely 1-1
2-0 ✓
2026-06-30
France – Sweden
pick: France (69%) · likely 2-0
3-0 ✓
2026-06-30
Ivory Coast – Norway
pick: Norway (47%) · likely 1-1
1-2 ✓
2026-07-01
England – DR Congo
pick: England (63%) · likely 1-0
2-1 ✓
2026-07-01
Belgium – Senegal
pick: Belgium (45%) · likely 1-1
3-2 ✓
2026-07-01
United States – Bosnia and Herzegovina
pick: United States (63%) · likely 2-0
2-0 ✓ 🎯
2026-07-02
Spain – Austria
pick: Spain (63%) · likely 1-0
3-0 ✓
2026-07-02
Portugal – Croatia
pick: Portugal (50%) · likely 1-0
2-1 ✓
2026-07-02
Switzerland – Algeria
pick: Switzerland (43%) · likely 1-1
2-0 ✓
2026-07-03
Australia – Egypt
pick: Australia (35%) · likely 0-0
3-5 ✗
2026-07-03
Argentina – Cape Verde
pick: Argentina (82%) · likely 2-0
3-2 ✓
2026-07-03
Colombia – Ghana
pick: Colombia (74%) · likely 2-0
1-0 ✓
2026-07-04
Canada – Morocco
pick: Morocco (51%) · likely 0-1
0-3 ✓
2026-07-04
Paraguay – France
pick: France (61%) · likely 0-1
0-1 ✓ 🎯
2026-07-05
Mexico – England
pick: England (45%) · likely 1-1
2-3 ✓
2026-07-05
Brazil – Norway
pick: Brazil (52%) · likely 1-1
1-2 ✗
2026-07-06
Portugal – Spain
pick: Spain (48%) · likely 1-1
0-1 ✓
2026-07-06
United States – Belgium
pick: Belgium (45%) · likely 1-1
1-4 ✓
2026-07-07
Argentina – Egypt
pick: Argentina (66%) · likely 1-0
3-2 ✓
2026-07-07
Switzerland – Colombia
pick: Colombia (45%) · likely 1-1
4-3 ✗
2026-07-09
France – Morocco
pick: France (37%) · likely 0-0
2-0 ✓
2026-07-10
Spain – Belgium
pick: Spain (55%) · likely 1-1
2-1 ✓
2026-07-11
Norway – England
pick: England (49%) · likely 1-1
1-2 ✓
2026-07-11
Argentina – Switzerland
pick: Argentina (57%) · likely 1-0
3-1 ✓
2026-07-14
France – Spain
pick: Spain (100%) · likely 0-2
0-2 ✓ 🎯
2026-07-15
England – Argentina
pick: Argentina (39%) · likely 0-1
1-2 ✓
2026-07-18
France – England
pick: England (36%) · likely 1-1
4-6 ✓
2026-07-19
Spain – Argentina
pick: Spain (36%) · likely 1-1
1-0 ✓
5How far does each team go?
| team | grp | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | H | 100% | 88% | 67% | 55% | 43% | 28% |
| Argentina | J | 100% | 94% | 78% | 57% | 37% | 22% |
| England | L | 100% | 85% | 63% | 42% | 22% | 11% |
| France | I | 100% | 81% | 55% | 33% | 14% | 6.5% |
| Colombia | K | 100% | 87% | 57% | 24% | 12% | 5.4% |
| Brazil | C | 100% | 66% | 44% | 23% | 11% | 4.8% |
| Morocco | C | 100% | 54% | 41% | 22% | 9.2% | 4.2% |
| Portugal | K | 100% | 67% | 23% | 15% | 8.0% | 3.6% |
| Belgium | G | 100% | 67% | 51% | 17% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
| Netherlands | F | 100% | 46% | 36% | 18% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Germany | E | 100% | 68% | 29% | 15% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Norway | I | 100% | 67% | 29% | 12% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Switzerland | B | 100% | 63% | 28% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Japan | F | 100% | 34% | 17% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Mexico | A | 100% | 52% | 16% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Ecuador | E | 100% | 48% | 15% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Senegal | I | 100% | 33% | 21% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Croatia | L | 100% | 33% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Australia | D | 100% | 53% | 11% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Austria | J | 100% | 12% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| United States | D | 100% | 69% | 23% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ivory Coast | E | 100% | 33% | 10% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Algeria | J | 100% | 37% | 13% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Canada | B | 100% | 66% | 18% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Paraguay | D | 100% | 32% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Egypt | G | 100% | 47% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| DR Congo | K | 100% | 15% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sweden | F | 100% | 19% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| South Africa | A | 100% | 34% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 100% | 31% | 5.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ghana | L | 100% | 13% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Korea | A | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Czech Republic | A | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Qatar | B | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haiti | C | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scotland | C | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Turkey | D | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Curaçao | E | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tunisia | F | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iran | G | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New Zealand | G | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | H | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Uruguay | H | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cape Verde | H | 100% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iraq | I | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan | J | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Uzbekistan | K | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Panama | L | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
6Why trust any of this? (backtest evidence)
Before the tournament, every model predicted thousands of past matches it had never seen, trained only on data available at the time. Accuracy: share of matches where the most likely outcome happened (random guessing = 33%, always picking the home side = 47%). Brier: probability quality, lower is better. XGBoost is a machine-learning benchmark for comparison. Best score per column in green.
WC 2018 (64 matches)
| model | accuracy | brier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo + Poisson | 58% | 0.588 |
| Elo + Dixon-Coles | 58% | 0.591 |
| Elo + DC + attack/defense | 59% | 0.568 |
| XGBoost (benchmark) | 53% | 0.602 |
WC 2022 (64 matches)
| model | accuracy | brier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo + Poisson | 52% | 0.622 |
| Elo + Dixon-Coles | 52% | 0.622 |
| Elo + DC + attack/defense | 48% | 0.622 |
| XGBoost (benchmark) | 50% | 0.645 |
All matches 2024 - now (2540 matches)
| model | accuracy | brier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo + Poisson | 60% | 0.511 |
| Elo + Dixon-Coles | 60% | 0.511 |
| Elo + DC + attack/defense | 60% | 0.501 |
| XGBoost (benchmark) | 60% | 0.513 |
7Most likely bracket — Elo + DC + attack/defense
This is the single most likely storyline: every match resolved to its most probable outcome, one path through the whole tournament. It answers a different question from the title odds above, which count wins across all 10,000 simulated tournaments and every possible path — so the two can crown different teams without either being wrong.
ELI5: how can the bracket winner differ from the title-odds leader?
Imagine two equally good teams walking different roads to the final. Team A's road is one wide, smooth highway: its single most likely path is very clear, and in the final at the end of that path it has a tiny 52/48 edge. Ask “what's the ONE most likely story of the tournament?” and you follow each step to its most probable ending — that story ends with Team A lifting the trophy. That's the walkthrough below.
Team B's road is lots of smaller paths that all lead to the final: a softer group, a kinder side of the bracket. No single path is the likeliest story, but added up across thousands of simulated tournaments, Team B reaches the final — and wins the whole thing — slightly more often. That's the title odds above.
Same idea in one line: you're more likely to bump into somefriend today than to bump into Bob specifically — even if Bob is the single friend you're most likely to see. “Most total ways to happen” and “biggest single way to happen” aren't the same thing.
When to use which: use the title oddsto judge who's most likely to win the cup (betting, bragging rights, expectations). Use the walkthrough to fill out a bracket or preview the most plausible match-by-match route. If they disagree, it means the top teams are nearly even — which is itself useful to know.
Show the single most-likely tournament walkthrough
GROUP STAGE — most likely tables Group A: 1.Mexico (12pts), 2.South Africa (4pts), 3.South Korea (3pts), 4.Czech Republic (1pts) Group B: 1.Switzerland (11pts), 2.Canada (4pts), 3.Bosnia and Herzegovina (4pts), 4.Qatar (1pts) Group C: 1.Brazil (10pts), 2.Morocco (7pts), 3.Scotland (3pts), 4.Haiti (0pts) Group D: 1.United States (9pts), 2.Australia (5pts), 3.Paraguay (4pts), 4.Turkey (3pts) Group E: 1.Germany (7pts), 2.Ivory Coast (6pts), 3.Ecuador (4pts), 4.Curaçao (1pts) Group F: 1.Netherlands (8pts), 2.Japan (5pts), 3.Sweden (4pts), 4.Tunisia (0pts) Group G: 1.Belgium (8pts), 2.Egypt (5pts), 3.Iran (3pts), 4.New Zealand (1pts) Group H: 1.Spain (16pts), 2.Cape Verde (3pts), 3.Uruguay (2pts), 4.Saudi Arabia (2pts) Group I: 1.France (15pts), 2.Norway (6pts), 3.Senegal (3pts), 4.Iraq (0pts) Group J: 1.Argentina (18pts), 2.Austria (4pts), 3.Algeria (4pts), 4.Jordan (0pts) Group K: 1.Colombia (10pts), 2.Portugal (8pts), 3.DR Congo (4pts), 4.Uzbekistan (0pts) Group L: 1.England (10pts), 2.Croatia (6pts), 3.Ghana (4pts), 4.Panama (0pts) Best third-placed teams from groups: BDEFIJKL ROUND OF 32 M73: South Africa vs Canada -> Canada (win prob 68%) M74: Germany vs Paraguay -> Germany (win prob 70%) M75: Netherlands vs Morocco -> Morocco (win prob 55%) M76: Brazil vs Japan -> Brazil (win prob 68%) M77: France vs Sweden -> France (win prob 84%) M78: Ivory Coast vs Norway -> Norway (win prob 70%) M79: Mexico vs Ecuador -> Mexico (win prob 51%) M80: England vs DR Congo -> England (win prob 88%) M81: United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina -> United States (win prob 71%) M82: Belgium vs Senegal -> Belgium (win prob 69%) M83: Portugal vs Croatia -> Portugal (win prob 70%) M84: Spain vs Austria -> Spain (win prob 89%) M85: Switzerland vs Algeria -> Switzerland (win prob 65%) M86: Argentina vs Cape Verde -> Argentina (win prob 96%) M87: Colombia vs Ghana -> Colombia (win prob 90%) M88: Australia vs Egypt -> Australia (win prob 54%) ROUND OF 16 M89: Germany vs France -> France (win prob 65%) M90: Canada vs Morocco -> Morocco (win prob 77%) M91: Brazil vs Norway -> Brazil (win prob 64%) M92: Mexico vs England -> England (win prob 77%) M93: Portugal vs Spain -> Spain (win prob 75%) M94: United States vs Belgium -> Belgium (win prob 77%) M95: Argentina vs Australia -> Argentina (win prob 86%) M96: Switzerland vs Colombia -> Colombia (win prob 63%) QUARTERFINALS M97: France vs Morocco -> France (win prob 53%) M98: Spain vs Belgium -> Spain (win prob 80%) M99: Brazil vs England -> England (win prob 58%) M100: Argentina vs Colombia -> Argentina (win prob 68%) SEMIFINALS M101: France vs Spain -> Spain (win prob 73%) M102: England vs Argentina -> Argentina (win prob 57%) FINAL M104: Spain vs Argentina -> Spain (win prob 57%) PREDICTED CHAMPION: Spain HOW TO READ THIS: the walkthrough above is the single most likely storyline, taking the most probable outcome of every individual match. It is a different question from the overall title odds (Spain 28.0%, Argentina 22.2%, England 11.4%), which count wins across all 10,000 simulated tournaments and every possible path. When the two best teams are nearly even, one can lead the title odds while the other wins this particular walkthrough — a near-50/50 final flips it.